Finally, the results of Maharashtra are out & the Congress-NCP is all set to form the Government for the 3rd time in a row! The feature of Anti-incumbency seems to have been done away, very strange. A weak opposition camp seems to be very much evident. The analysts keep posing the question of MNS being the spoiler for Congress’s advantage. But the analysts don’t seem to go beyond the face value. A balanced analysis seems to be absent.
The default victory of Cong-NCP combine constitutes many factors.
As reported by media that MNS has fared well in Mumbai & Thane, doesn’t seem true. In Mumbai city & suburbs it has bagged only 4seats out of total 36 seats. In Thane city where it was claimed that MNS would dominate, could not win a single seat. In fact, the margin of victory of Shiv Sena was far more for MNS to play spoiler in 2seats of total 3 in Thane city. The magic of MNS could only work in Kalyan suburb & Nasik city adding a total of 5 seats.That’s all where MNS could get the clear mandate of people (Overall win of 13seats).Otherwise it has played a spoiler by capturing a portion of votes by denting the traditional vote bank of Marathi manoos, making Sena loose several seats.
Now, looking at Shiv Sena, it has hit all time low. There are several factors which have led to its defeat beyond the spoiler role played MNS. The entire selection process of Shiv Sena candidates was very much poor & based on no application of mind. So despite the seat being a traditional Sena stronghold, the poor selection of candidates made things difficult all the more.
Two examples can be cited to vindicate the point-1) Selection of candidate in Mahim & Aurangabad. Both the seats a traditional sena stronghold was won by MNS in Mahim & rebel in Aurangabad. Mahim & Aurangabad have been represented by Sena for over 3terms. The strong contenders for the seat were denied the ticket & some non deserving, actors were picked up.
Moreover,Shiv Sena lacked a charismatic leader which would match the stature of Bal Thackeray to take on Raj Thackeray. Shiv Sena & MNS are cult status parties & the Shiv Sena was without its GODFATHER. May be MNS would be the same without Raj Thackeray in very very long term. Its former leader of opposition in assembly was totally incapable & could not win. It was BJP which lead the main role.
Raj Thackeray is replica of Bal Thackeray 40 years back when Shiv Sena was born & we see where Shiv Sena stands now, so will MNS also be where Shiv Sena is now? This question is valid. The Shiv Sena could come to power only by encashing on Hindu emotions post Mumbai riots-something like a lottery. Similarly MNS can come to power by fluke, but in this era the communal or regional politics may not constitute enough recipe for MNS to capture power as it did for Shiv Sena in mid 1990’s. It will be interesting to see the growth & fall (if any) of MNS.
The surprise element of this election was seeing NCP fighting back and bagging very good number of seats than expected. Many in media had virtually written off NCP & started speculating end of Pawar’s power play. But all the estimation turned to be wrong & Sharad Pawar is all set to hold the power & run his writ.
BJP has performed fairly in comparison to Shiv Sena keeping in view the number of seats it was allotted in the allaince. It improved its tally in Vidarbha. Now BJP needs to reconsider its tie with Shiv Sena due to constant denial of identifying MNS as important factor.
Though elections have ended, its not easy way for Congress-NCP government as it has to face an aggressive MNS. The most vocal opposition camp would be MNS. This is also big trouble for saffron parties to prove themselves as worth opposition.
Perhaps lot to be seen in Maharashtra politics ahead !!!
